Population and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: Projections for Governorates to 2051

8445 21 13174 2 21618 document 13174 IR-07-010.pdf application/pdf 9d65dfe041469b92d56741ac2c9b667c MD5 2030284 2016-01-15 08:40:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8445/1/IR-07-010.pdf 8445 1 1 text en public

IR-07-010.pdf

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IR-07-010.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13174 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13174 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13174 archive 351 disk0/00/00/84/45 2016-01-15 08:40:37 2023-08-05 05:00:45 2016-01-15 08:40:37 monograph show 2 Goujon A. 1569 0000-0003-4125-6857 Alkitkat H. 8145 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Prommer I. 7619 Population and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: Projections for Governorates to 2051 pub iis_pop prog_pop Human capital formation has been chosen as the initial focal point of this new IIASA population-development-environment case study on Egypt. With its population still likely to double and its water resources severely restricted, Egypt faces formidable population- and environment-related challenges. The government has an explicit population policy aimed at bringing the fertility rate down to replacement level by 2017. With its options for agricultural development severely limited, the future livelihood of this rapidly growing population can only be secured through rapid development in the industrial and service sectors. For both sectors, human capital development is a necessary prerequisite for success. Of course, such development needs to be complemented by the right investment and trade policies. But without a sufficiently well-educated population, Egypt will not be able to compete in the global service and industry markets. The study explores the human capital dimension at the aggregate level for the whole of Egypt and at the governorate level, distinguishing between 21 governorates and the Frontier Region. For each of the governorates a multi-state population projection model is defined that differentiates the population by age, sex, and level of education. The scenarios demonstrate the momentum of educational development: The challenges will be important for those governorates where past investments in education have been insufficient, especially for the female population, and where the working-age population will increase tremendously, such as in Fayoum, Menia, Assyout, and Suhag. The projections point to the necessity of major structural changes in the development of Egypt. 2007-03 published IR-07-010 IR-07-010 110 1119 190 1521 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 116 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book