Learning from global emissions scenarios

8481 13 35160 2 78328 document 35160 Learning from global emissions scenarios.pdf application/pdf 1f07c8a2e8b174a2a0e969c9d608dd66 MD5 210716 2016-02-29 09:23:59 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8481/1/Learning%20from%20global%20emissions%20scenarios.pdf 8481 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Learning from global emissions scenarios.pdf

published 35161 2 78331 document 35161 lightbox.jpg image/png cb3553af46ea22571a3b5671c2453791 MD5 12414 2016-02-29 09:24:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8481/2/lightbox.jpg 8481 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35160 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35160 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35160 archive 351 disk0/00/00/84/81 2016-01-15 08:40:47 2021-08-27 17:20:17 2016-01-15 08:40:47 article show 1 O'Neill B.C. 7542 Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Learning from global emissions scenarios pub iis_ene iis_env prog_ene prog_pcc Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production. 2008-12 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045014 XJ-08-157 [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045014]. Special Issue 1492 214 public Environmental Research Letters 3 4 no.045014 45014 TRUE 1748-9326 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article