Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

8517 14 61336 3 168790 document 61336 Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.pdf application/pdf b6c9b74b3f68692fd667eabee2552fac MD5 964621 2016-06-09 11:46:12 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8517/1/Temperature%20increase%20of%2021st%20century%20mitigation%20scenarios.pdf 8517 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.pdf

published 61337 2 168793 document 61337 lightbox.jpg image/png 98a23d223c3bd0d36a95196d1e086954 MD5 73298 2016-06-09 11:46:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8517/2/lightbox.jpg 8517 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61336 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61336 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61336 archive 351 disk0/00/00/85/17 2016-01-15 08:40:54 2021-08-27 17:20:18 2016-01-15 08:40:54 article show van Vuuren D.P. Meinshausen M. Plattner G.-K. Joos F. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Chesnaye F. de la Elzen M.G.J. den AL0101 Fujino J. 7676 Jiang K. Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Paltsev S. Reilly J. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios pub iis_cli iis_ene iis_env prog_ene prog_tnt climate; climate policy; stabilization; integrated assessment; scenario Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of ~1.40C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. 2008-08 published National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.0711129105 XJ-08-119 PNAS; 105(40):15258-15262 [2008] [doi:10.1073/pnas.0711129105] 250 1857 1268 214 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 40 15258-15262 TRUE 1091-6490 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article