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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13235 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13235 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13235 archive 351 disk0/00/00/87/74 2016-01-15 08:41:48 2021-08-27 17:20:35 2016-01-15 08:41:48 monograph show 2 Krasovskii A.A. 8266 0000-0003-0940-9366 Tarasyev A.M. 7340 Watanabe C. 1605 Assessment of the Market Development Trajectory for Optimal Timing of Technological Innovation pub iis_ecn iis_met prog_dyn A dynamic model of investment process for a technology innovator in a market environment is designed. The model is focused on three interrelated decision making problems for an innovator: (1) identification of the econometric trends and calibration of the model parameters; (2) optimization of the commercialization time; (3) optimal control design of the investment policy. A stochastic model based on different types of probabilistic distribution for description of the price formation mechanism is realized in the part of identification of technological trajectories of the market. It has been proven that the extremum of the profit function coincide with the points of intersection of two functions, one of which is the market distribution function that describes the market price formation mechanism and the other is the marginal costs of the project of technology innovation. The model is calibrated basing on the econometric data analysis for the CANON firm provided by the Tokyo Institute of Technology and realized in the illustrative software. 2008-04 published IR-08-007 IR-08-007 164 1610 323 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 40 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book