Implications of Limited Foresight and Sequential Decision Making for Long-term Energy System Planning: An Application of the Myopic MESSAGE Model

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IR-09-006.pdf

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IR-09-006.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13374 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13374 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13374 archive 351 disk0/00/00/91/42 2016-01-15 08:43:39 2021-08-27 17:21:09 2016-01-15 08:43:39 monograph show 2 Keppo I. 1788 Strubegger M. 1407 Implications of Limited Foresight and Sequential Decision Making for Long-term Energy System Planning: An Application of the Myopic MESSAGE Model pub iis_ene iis_mod prog_ene This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results do demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions. reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emis 2009-03 published IR-09-006 IR-09-006 1370 300 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 23 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book