Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures?

9208 10 80776 2 223603 document 80776 2779.full.pdf application/pdf 3ca281ef11f711e46bb033b4dc46c368 MD5 667644 2018-02-12 14:30:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9208/1/2779.full.pdf 9208 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

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published 80777 2 223606 document 80777 lightbox.jpg image/png a38798546b56f3b7439fa9279fb68297 MD5 58048 2018-02-12 14:31:03 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9208/2/lightbox.jpg 9208 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80776 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80776 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80776 archive 351 disk0/00/00/92/08 2016-01-15 08:43:52 2023-08-05 05:00:50 2016-01-15 08:43:52 article show Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 K.C. S. 1808 Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures? pub iis_pop prog_pop world population; population increase; population decline; dimensions of population projections; age structure; level of educational attainment The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8 -10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the poulation and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. 2010-09 published Royal Society of London 10.1098/rstb.2010.0133 XJ-10-101 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences; 365(1554):2779-2791 (27 September 2010) [doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0133] 190 140 public Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365 1554 2779-2791 TRUE 1471-2970 Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess