Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

9276 11 61577 3 169253 document 61577 Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.pdf application/pdf db064c5e828a940edefc0543a15f8ef9 MD5 472980 2016-06-09 14:45:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9276/1/Estimating%20least-developed%20countries%27%20vulnerability%20to%20climate-related%20extreme%20events%20over%20the%20next%2050%20years.pdf 9276 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.pdf

published 61578 2 169256 document 61578 lightbox.jpg image/png b19b5257bbf7a2b54d958d4022733582 MD5 74804 2016-06-09 14:46:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9276/2/lightbox.jpg 9276 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61577 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61577 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61577 archive 351 disk0/00/00/92/76 2016-01-15 08:44:07 2021-08-27 17:21:20 2016-01-15 08:44:07 article show Patt A. 7617 Tadross M. Nussbaumer P. 1852 Asante K. Metzger M. Rafael J. Goujon A. 1569 0000-0003-4125-6857 Brundrit G. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years pub iis_env prog_pop prog_ggi prog_rav Vulnerability; Adaptive capacity; Development; Natural disasters; Natural hazards When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambiue, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio- economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assitance to finance adaptation. 2010-01 published National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.0910253107 XJ-10-029 PNAS; 107(4):1333-1337 (26 January 2010) [doi:10.1073/pnas.0910253107] 227 1485 110 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 4 1333-1337 TRUE 1091-6490 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article