Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options

9285 13 61312 3 168758 document 61312 Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options.pdf application/pdf 09efdbb19c6481b1eab467919d319e67 MD5 813068 2016-06-09 11:39:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9285/1/Mitigation%20implications%20of%20midcentury%20targets%20that%20preserve%20long-term%20climate%20policy%20options.pdf 9285 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options.pdf

published 61313 2 168761 document 61313 lightbox.jpg image/png 629f3b63559a30f0e8da4e0934e6d35a MD5 76398 2016-06-09 11:40:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9285/2/lightbox.jpg 9285 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61312 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61312 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61312 archive 351 disk0/00/00/92/85 2016-01-15 08:44:09 2021-08-27 17:21:21 2016-01-15 08:44:09 article show O'Neill B.C. 7542 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Keppo I. 1788 Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options pub iis_ene prog_ene prog_pcc prog_tnt climate change; integrated assessment; emission target; mitigation Midcentury targets have been proposed as a guide to climate change policy that can link long-term goals to shorter-term actions. However no explicit mitigation analyses have been carried out of the relationship between midcentury conditions and longer-term outcomes. Here we use an integrated assessment modeling framework with a detailed representation of the energy sector to examine the dependence of climate change outcomes in 2100 on emissions levels, atmospheric concentrations, and technology characteristics in 2050. We find that midcentury conditions are crucial determinants of longer-term climate outcomes, and we identify feasibility thresholds describing conditions that must be met by midcentury to keep particular long-term options open. For example, to preserve the technical feasibility of a 50% likelihood of keeping global average temperature at <2 degrees C above preindustrial in 2100, global emissions must be reduced by about 20% below 2000 levels by 2050. Results are sensitive to several assumptions, including the nature of future socio-economic development. In a scenario with high demand for energy and land, being below 2 degrees C with 50% likelihood requires a 50% reduction in emissions below 2000 levels by 2050, which is only barely feasible with known technologies in that scenario. Results suggest that a greater focus on midcentury targets could facilitate the development of policies that preserve potentially desirable long-term options. 2010-01 published National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.0903797106 XJ-10-020 PNAS; 107(3):1011-1016 (19 January 2010) (Published online 13 January 2010) [doi:10.1073/pnas.0903797106] 1492 250 1370 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 3 1011-1016 TRUE 1091-6490 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article