Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios

9464 23 13453 2 22917 document 13453 IR-10-019.pdf application/pdf ff76e13ccc246f1d0fbe7e78dd6d0743 MD5 209164 2016-01-15 08:44:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9464/1/IR-10-019.pdf 9464 1 1 text en public

IR-10-019.pdf

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IR-10-019.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13453 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13453 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13453 archive 351 disk0/00/00/94/64 2016-01-15 08:44:57 2025-03-12 05:00:07 2016-01-15 08:44:57 monograph show 2 Rafaj P. 1822 0000-0003-1000-5617 Rao S. 1771 Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Kolp P. 1793 0000-0003-0122-2839 Schoepp W. 1017 0000-0001-5990-423X Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios pub iis_env iis_ene iis_mod prog_ene prog_apd This report presents a methodology to link national medium-term (up to 2030) with global long-term (beyond 2050) emission scenarios. Such a linkage is relevant for estimating impacts of global long-term climate change scenarios on local and regional air pollution in the next few decades. We present a methodology for the linkage that combines results from two models developed at IIASA: the GAINS air pollution model and the MESSAGE model of long-term energy system dynamics. We calculate for energy scenarios developed by the MESSAGE model future emissions of air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, BC/OC, NH3, VOC and CO), taking into account air pollution control legislation that is in place in the various countries. Example results are provided for the middle-of-the-road B2 baseline scenario. Under the B2 scenario global emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide decline continuously between 2000 and 2100, largely due to widespread implementation of air pollution control technologies. On the other hand, in Asian developing countries sulfur emissions will increase significantly up to 2030 due to the strong increase in coal use for power generation. In contrast, a climate stabilization scenario highlights synergies from the co-control of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the role of shipping emissions is discussed within the global context, and resulting emission projections are compared with other analyses. 2010-12 published IR-10-019 IR-10-019 241 244 159 160 273 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 32 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book