Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change: Numerical modeling for the Combeima region in Colombia

9487 8 70838 2 196203 document 70838 Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change.pdf application/pdf 3aadcfd6b2e1636663edca5195532f83 MD5 1313130 2016-09-08 07:36:47 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9487/1/Adaptation%20capacity%20of%20a%20landslide%20early%20warning%20system%20to%20climate%20change.pdf 9487 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change.pdf

published 70839 2 196206 document 70839 lightbox.jpg image/png a39c92e0d8d123776cc538104536b212 MD5 51923 2016-09-08 07:37:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9487/2/lightbox.jpg 9487 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70838 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70838 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70838 archive 351 disk0/00/00/94/87 2016-01-15 08:45:04 2021-08-27 17:21:40 2016-01-15 08:45:04 article show Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Huggel C. Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Ramirez J.M. Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change: Numerical modeling for the Combeima region in Colombia pub iis_env iis_rsp prog_esm Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro- meteorological hazards, including landslides. EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore dificult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this paper we utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Correct evacuation was assessed with a 'true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that has been implemented in recent years within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilisic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitatin as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our resuts show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the systems performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios. 2011-12-13 published 10.5595/idrim.2011.0019 http://www.idrim.net/index.php/idrim/article/view/19/pdf_5 XJ-11-187 Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management; 1(2) (13 December 2011) [doi:10.5595/idrim.2011.0019]. Available at <www.idrim.net/index.php/idrim/article/view/19/pdf_5> 151 219 public Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management 1 2 TRUE 2185-8322 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article