Items where Research Program is "Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)" and Year is 2026

B

Bednar, J., Baklanov, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1599-3618, Macinante, J., Hall, J.W., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2026). Stabilizing time-lagged climate impacts requires net-negative emissions for centuries. Environmental Research Letters 21 (2), e021002. 10.1088/1748-9326/ae34ca.

D

Deng, Z., Zhu, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9360-6797, Davis, S., Ciais, P. & Liu, Z. (2026). Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2025. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00780-4.

Dragone, D., Feichtinger, G., Grass, D., Hartl, R.F., Kort, P.M., Seidl, A. & Wrzaczek, S. (2026). Obesity, sedentary behavior and lifestyle: A lifecycle model of eating and physical activity. Journal of Health Economics 106, e103114. 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103114.

E

Eker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2264-132X, Reiter, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1485-3851, Liu, Q., Kuhn, M. & Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 (2026). Wellbeing cost of carbon. Global Sustainability 9, e1. 10.1017/sus.2025.10042.

F

Fierro, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4378-1375, Reissl, S., Lamperti, F., Campiglio, E., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Kremer, E. & Tavoni, M. (2026). Safeguarding macro-financial stability under carbon pricing and rapid energy transition. Communications Earth & Environment 7 (1), e482. 10.1038/s43247-026-03209-4.

Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M.D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A.B.A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N.P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H.D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A. et al. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data 18 (6), 3889-3933. 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026.

G

Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Rezai, A., Cheritel, C., Baklanov, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1599-3618 & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2026). Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-69896-x. (In Press)

Grassi, G., Ciais, P. & Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 (2026). China’s land carbon sinks: from improved estimates to opportunities for better management. Science Bulletin 71 (2), 213-216. 10.1016/j.scib.2025.11.031.

H

Hill, G., Zurek, M. & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2026). From local landscapes to global: A cross-scale and cross-level framework for a more just food systems transformation. Land Use Policy 161, e107869. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107869.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9929-8171, Šakić Trogrlić, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6627-873X, Reiter, K., Daloz, A.S., Geurts, D., Ma, L., Padrón-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., Torresan, S., Álvarez-Albelo, C.D., Casartelli, V., Ciurean, R., Dal Barco, M.K., Díaz-Pacheco, J., Díaz-Hernández, J.J., Antequera, P.D., Duncan, M.J., Ferrario, D.M., García-González, S., Gottardo, S. et al. (2026). Operationalising Systemic Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment: Lessons from the MYRIAD-EU Framework. iScience, e114935. 10.1016/j.isci.2026.114935. (In Press)

M

Martin, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2862-8540, Wong, C., Stefaniak, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2998-5619 & Freiberger, M. (2026). BLOOM: Biodiversity and Land-use Objectives for Optimal Management. IIASA , Laxenburg, Austria.

Mokos, J., Fedor, A., Deli, D., Kívés, B., Vásárhelyi, Z., Boza, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6453-8254 & Scheuring, I. (2026). Cost-free charity facilitates dishonesty in a dice-rolling experiment. Scientific Reports 10.1038/s41598-026-56788-9. (In Press)

O

O’Sullivan, M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Ciais, P., Arora, V., Kato, E., Knauer, J., Monier, E., Nützel, T., Sun, Q., Yuan, W., Yue, X. & Zaehle, S. (2026). An improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 9 (1), e29. 10.1038/s41612-025-01302-7.

P

Parvinen, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9125-6041, Ohtsuki, H. & Wakano, J.Y. (2026). Evolution of dispersal in a spatially heterogeneous population with finite patch sizes and catastrophes. Journal of Theoretical Biology, e112528. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2026.112528. (In Press)

S

Scheifinger, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9464-4098, Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057, Mintz-Woo, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9216-9561, Zimm, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5603-1015, Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Żebrowski, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5283-8049, Schinko, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1156-7574, Pachauri, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-3178, Sovacool, B., Fritz, L. & Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 (2026). Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios. npj Climate Action 5 (1), e39. 10.1038/s44168-026-00364-4.

Schädel, C., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Rogers, B., Treharne, R., Turetsky, M., Smith, T., MacDonald, E. & Natali, S. (2026). Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach. Communications Earth & Environment 7 (1), e306. 10.1038/s43247-026-03189-5.

Stafford, E., Brännström, Å., Kausrud, K. & Sjödin, H. (2026). Modelling land use-induced foraging distributions of flying foxes and emerging spillover risks. One Health 22, e101333. 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101333.

Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, Budka, P., Erokhin, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5191-0579, Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179, Meyer, Al., Povoroznyuk, O., Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Sancho-Reinoso, A., Schmid, K. & Schweitzer, P. (2026). Multi-scale scenario building for community development: Exploring transport infrastructure futures in the Circumpolar North. Futures 180, e103834. 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103834.

V

Verschuur, J., Murgatroyd, A., Vittis, Y., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, Godfray, C.J. & Hall, J.W. (2026). Assessing the resilience of global grain supplies to compound climatic and non-climatic shocks. PloS Climate 5 (5), e0000825. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000825.

W

Wrzaczek, S., Feichtinger, G., Fent, T. & Novak, A. (2026). To grow or to fluctuate – optimal demographic paths. Mathematical Population Studies, 1-27. 10.1080/08898480.2026.2652292.

Y

Ye, H., Xue, Y., Wu, H. & Hu, D. (2026). The role of government green procurement in green firm entry: Evidence from 285 cities. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 79, 375-385. 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.05.014.

Yi, W., Liu, H., Peng, L., Liu, Z., Luo, Z., Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Ng, S.H., Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, Yan, R., Wang, X., Yang, Z., He, T., Zhang, W., Cai, F., Zhang, Q. & He, K. (2026). Drivers and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00790-2.

Z

Zhang, D., Zheng, B., He, Y., Wang, T., Shrivastav, G., Ciais, P. & Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 (2026). National pathways of land-use CO₂ emissions in the 21st century. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-74836-w. (In Press)

Zhou, C., Ciais, P., Mittakola, R.T., Zhu, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9360-6797, Su, Y. & Xu, Y. (2026). Global Marine LNG Terminals, Tankers & Trade: A High-Resolution AIS-Based Dataset of LNG Trade (2020–2024). Scientific Data 10.1038/s41597-026-07454-2. (In Press)