Items where Research Program is "Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)" and Year is 2025

A

APCC (2025). Second Austrian Assessment Report on Climate Change (AAR2). Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences Press. ISBN 978-3-7001-5110-4 10.1553/aar2.

Aguilar-Garavito, M., Isaacs-Cubides, P., Peña-González, N. & Warren-Thomas, E. (2025). Challenges for policy and practice in meeting ambitious ecological restoration targets by 2030: A perspective from Colombia. Biological Conservation 302, e110973. 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.110973.

Austin, K.G., Favero, A., Forsell, N., Sohngen, B.L., Wade, C.M., Ohrel, S.B. & Ragnauth, S. (2025). Targeting climate finance for global forests. Nature Communications 16 (1), e6443. 10.1038/s41467-025-61657-6.

C

Ceaușu, S., Leclère, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509 & Newbold, T. (2025). Geography and availability of natural habitat determine whether cropland intensification or expansion is more detrimental to biodiversity. Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-025-02691-x. (In Press)

Chapman, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1377-1539, Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390, Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Boettiger, C., Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Gusti, M., Ringwald, L. & Visconti, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6823-2826 (2025). Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands. Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-025-02671-1.

Cui, Y., Zhang, S., Ma, X., Xu, M. & Dai, H. (2025). Co-benefit or tradeoff? The impact of inter-provincial trade-embodied pollutants on air quality and public health under climate targets in China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 115, e108050. 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108050.

D

Deng, X., Teng, F., Zhang, X., Fan, J.-L., Forsell, N. & Reiner, D.M. (2025). Co-deploying biochar and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage improves cost-effectiveness and sustainability of China’s carbon neutrality. One Earth 8 (1), e101172. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.12.008.

Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Gusti, M., Deppermann, A., Nakhavali, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-6730, Jia, F., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360 & Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 (2025). Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model. One Earth 8 (6), e101313. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101313.

Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Snäll, T., Lauri, P., Forsell, N., Mönkkönen, M., Burgas, D., Blattert, C., Eyvindson, K., Caicoya, A.T., Vergarechea, M., Antón-Fernández, C., Klein, J., Astrup, R., Lukkarinen, J., Pitzén, S. & Primmer, E. (2025). Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy. Global Environmental Change 92, e102986. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102986.

de Lange, T., van Dijk, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-7304, Kuiper, M., van Zeist, W.-J., Bartelings, H., Mizan, A. & van Meijl, H. (2025). Socio-economic, environmental and health impacts of dietary transformation in Bangladesh. Environmental Research Letters 20 (1), e014057. 10.1088/1748-9326/ada0ca.

den Elzen, M.G.J., Dafnomilis, I., Nascimento, L., Beusen, A., Forsell, N., Gubbels, J., Harmsen, M., Hooijschuur, E., Araujo Gutierrez, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2228-7079 & Kuramochi, T. (2025). Uncertainties around net‐zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1544, 209-222. 10.1111/nyas.15285.

E

Ermolieva, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Deppermann, A., Nakhavali, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-6730, Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Skalský, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897 & Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179 (2025). Robust Statistical Estimation and Two-Stage Stochastic Optimization: Quantile Regression EPIC Meta-Model of Soil Organic Carbon for Robust Decision Making with GLOBIOM. In: Stochastic Modeling and Optimization Methods for Critical Infrastructure Protection: Stochastic modeling. Eds. Gaivoronski, A., Knopov, P., Norkin, V. & Zaslavskyi, V., Wiley. ISBN 978-1-836-69027-6

Ermolieva, T. & Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179 (2025). Modeling and managing systemic risk and food - water - (bio)energy security nexus in interdependent land use systems. In: 19th International European Forum (IGLS-Forum), 10-14 February 2025, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

Ermolieva, T., Zagorodny, A., Bogdanov, V., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179 & Knopov, P. (2025). Integrated Solutions and Distributed Models’ Linkage Procedures for Food–Energy–Water–Environmental Nexus Security Modeling and Management. In: Stochastic Modeling and Optimization Methods for Critical Infrastructure Protection: Stochastic modeling. Eds. Gaivoronski, A., Knopov, P., Norkin, V. & Zaslavskyi, V., Wiley. ISBN 978-1-836-69027-6

F

Figueira, M., Guarner, C., Conesa, D., López-Quílez, A. & Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628 (2025). Unveiling Land Use Dynamics: Insights from a Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Compositional Data. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 10.1007/s13253-025-00678-6.

Forsell, N., Araujo Gutierrez, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2228-7079 & Chen, M. (2025). Historical and Future Development of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal from the Land Use Sector from the View of Countries. FORMATH, Article ID 24.001. 10.15684/formath.24.001.

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Gaget, E., Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390, Lewis, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2244-4078, Hofhansl, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0073-0946, Graham, L., Warren-Thomas, E. & Visconti, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6823-2826 (2025). Reviewing and benchmarking ecological modelling practices in the context of land use. Ecography 10.1002/ecog.07745. (In Press)

Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, Addo, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2357-7649, Bauer, M., Lips, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2719-1551, Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Schellnhuber, H.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7453-4935 (2025). The breadth and potential of systems analysis across Africa. Environmental Development 55, e101207. 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101207.

H

Hadjikakou, M., Bowles, N.I., Geyik, O., Conijn, S.J.G., Mogollón, J.M., Bodirsky, B.L., Muller, A., Weindl, I., Moallemi, E.A., Shaikh, M.A., Damerau, K., Davis, K.F., Pfister, S., Springmann, M., Clark, M., Metson, G.S., Röös, E., Bajzelj, B., Graham, N.T., Wisser, D. et al. (2025). Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. One Earth 8 (9), e101351. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351.

Haniotis, A. (2025). Global challenges and the EU’s shifting agri-trade goalposts. Studies in Agricultural Economics 10.7896/j.3200.

Havlík, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, van Meijl, H., Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, Müller, M., Van Berkum, S., Fellmann, T., Gocht, A., Guyomard, A., Haniotis, T., Matthews, A., Sckokai, P., Stepanyan, D., Witzke, P., Balázs, K. & Bos, D. (2025). Sustainable agricultural sector: A key component of EU economic prosperity and security – An economic modellers’ perspective. A joint perspective paper by Horizon Europe projects ACT4CAP27, BrightSpace and LAMASUS 10.5281/zenodo.16413130.

Hemerijckx, L.-M., De Vos, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4607-7877, Kaunda, J.O. & Van Rompaey, A. (2025). Future scenarios for urban agriculture and food security in sub-Saharan Africa: Modelling the urban land-food system in an agent-based approach. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 118, e102258. 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2025.102258.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9929-8171, Keating, A., Velev, S., Chapagain, D., Hyun, J.H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6960-9277, Laurien, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7329-5864, Guimaraes, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1754-9238, Clercq-Roques, R. & Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578 (2025). Assessing Community Resilience: Validating a Universally Applicable Flood Resilience Measurement Framework and Tool. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 10.1007/s13753-025-00652-3. (In Press)

Hua, E., Li, S., Chen, M. & Forsell, N. (2025). How reference scenario selection affects technical mitigation potential at the sub-national level: Evidence from China's agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production 523, e146356. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146356.

K

Kozicka, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2323-3689, Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Davis, C., Deppermann, A., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Bos, D. & Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 (2025). Feeding The Planet While Saving It: How New Foods Can Help! Frontiers for Young Minds 13 10.3389/frym.2025.1558710.

Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, Ringwald, L., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Cornford, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-3603, Freund, C., Havlík, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Lauerwald, R., O'Connor, L., Renhart, A., Tan, E. & Visconti, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6823-2826 (2025). Maximizing CAP impact: Advancing Climate, Biodiversity, and Farm Profitability Through Strategic Action. LAMASUS Policy Brief 001

Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, van Dijk, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-7304 & Piribauer, P. (2025). Herding resilience: Surveys and Bayesian spatial models for Africa’s livestock. Environmental Development 54, e101141. 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101141.

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Luckeneder, S., Maus, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7385-4723, Siqueira-Gay, J., Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628 & Kuhn, M. (2025). Forest loss and uncertain economic gains from industrial and garimpo mining in Brazilian municipalities. Nature Communications 16 (1), e6543. 10.1038/s41467-025-61930-8.

M

Maury, O., Tittensor, D. P., Eddy, T. D., Allison, E. H., Bahri, T., Barrier, N., Campling, L., Cheung, W. W. L., Frieler, K., Fulton, E. A., Guillotreau, P., Heneghan, R. F., Lam, V. W. Y., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Lengaigne, M., Lotze‐Campen, H., Novaglio, C., Ortega‐Cisneros, K., Rault, J., Schewe, J. et al. (2025). The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries. Earth's Future 13 (3), e2024EF004851. 10.1029/2024EF004851.

Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578, Żebrowski, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5283-8049, Clercq-Roques, R., Patil, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7966-2546 & Hochrainer-Stigler, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9929-8171 (2025). Positive Externalities in the Polycrisis: Effectively Addressing Disaster and Climate Risks for Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 10.1007/s13753-025-00661-2. (In Press)

N

Nakhavali, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-6730, Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Repo, A., Vangi, E. & Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 (2025). ForestScope: Comprehensive tool for analysing soil, climate, and stand data in forest ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 508, e111251. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111251.

O

Oberleitner, T., Baklanov, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1599-3618, Ferreira, T.B., Hoogenboom, G., Jägermeyr, J., Jain, A., Lin, T.-S., Mialyk, O., Müller, C., Ruane, A.C., Zabel, F., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Wang, C., Faye, B., Guarin, J.R., Iizumi, T., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Okada, M., Rabin, S.S. et al. (2025). Explaining climatic drivers of yield anomalies in global crop models through metamodel-based attribution. ESS Open Archive 10.22541/essoar.176071967.73925210/v1. (Submitted)

P

Palazzo, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8167-9403, Nakhavali, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-6730, Gerber, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8722-3113, Arbelaez Gaviria, J., Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390, Drews, M., Meuriot, O.G.M., Martin, J.S., Bacca, S., Hinkel, J. & Lincke, D. (2025). ACCREU Report: Impacts on ecosystems & biodiversity. ACCREU (Assessing Climate Change Risk in EUrope)

Pan, Y., Sha, A., Han, W., Liu, C., Liu, G., Welsch, E., Zeng, M., Xu, S., Zhao, Y., Tian, S., Li, Y., Deng, R., Zhang, X., Shi, H., Cui, Y., Huang, C. & Peng, H. (2025). Identifying spatial drivers of soil heavy metal pollution risk integrating positive matrix factorization, machine learning, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression. Journal of Hazardous Materials 485, e136841. 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.136841.

Portugal-Pereira, J., Soterroni, A., Mazzone, A. & Tristan, J. (2025). Assessing potential implications of the EU's carbon dioxide removal strategy on Brazil's land ecosystems and local communities. Environmental Science & Policy 171, e104154. 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104154.

R

Rockström, J., Thilsted, S.H., Willett, W.C., Gordon, L.J., Herrero, M., Hicks, C.C., Mason-D'Croz, D., Rao, N., Springmann, M., Wright, E.C., Agustina, R., Bajaj, S., Bunge, A.C., Carducci, B., Conti, C., Covic, N., Fanzo, J., Forouhi, N.G., Gibson, M.F., Gu, X. et al. (2025). The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems. The Lancet 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01201-2.

Roman-Cuesta, R.M., den Elzen, M., Araujo-Gutierrez, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2228-7079, Forsell, N., Lamb, W.F., McGlynn, E., Melo, J., Rossi, S., Meinshausen, M., Federici, S., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Keramidas, K., Korosuo, A. & Grassi, G. (2025). Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability. Communications Earth & Environment 6 (1), e598. 10.1038/s43247-025-02494-9.

S

Schulte, M., Lauri, P., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Forsell, N., Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Eggers, J., Hahn, T. & Jonsson, R. (2025). Global forest carbon leakage and substitution effect potentials: The case of the Swedish forest sector. Journal of Environmental Management 393, e127193. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127193.

Shu, Y., Li, Y., Wu, Y., Feng, X.-Z., Xu, S.-S., Wang, Y.-L., Ma, T., Chen, J.-H., Gao, J., Zhang, S. & Huang, J.-Z. (2025). An integrated modelling framework for evaluating the synergistic impacts of low-carbon transitions and air pollution controls on air quality and health in Guangzhou, China. Advances in Climate Change Research 16 (3), 636-650. 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010.

Subramanian, N., Lundström, J., Forsell, N., Triviño, M., Öhman, K., Mönkkönen, M. & Snäll, T. (2025). Increasing global wood demand will risk forest sustainability. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 1-17. 10.1080/02827581.2025.2522718.

T

Tang, J., Zhu, Y., Yang, S. & Jaeger, C. (2025). Predicting Urban Traffic Under Extreme Weather by Deep Learning Method with Disaster Knowledge. Applied Sciences 15 (17), e9848. 10.3390/app15179848.

V

van Dijk, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-7304, Fuglie, K., Heisey, P.W. & Deng, H. (2025). A global dataset of public agricultural R&D investment: 1960-2022. Scientific Data 12 (1), e12. 10.1038/s41597-025-05331-y.

W

Waha, K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Biemans, H., Boere, E., Bondeau, A., Hartley, A.J., Hoogenboom, G., Jaegermeyr, J., Liu, Y., Mathison, C., Müller, C., Nkwasa, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8685-8854, Olin, S., Ruane, A.C., De Vos, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4607-7877, White, J.W., Williams, K. & Yu, Q. (2025). Land use modelling needs to better account for multiple cropping to inform pathways for sustainable agriculture. Communications Earth & Environment 6 (1), e756. 10.1038/s43247-025-02724-0.

Z

Zhao, X., Chepeliev, M., Escobar Lanzuela, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7644-8790, Binsted, M.T., Patel, P., Kyle, P. & Wise, M.A. (2025). Traceable and Scalable Food Balance Sheets from Agricultural Commodity Supply and Utilization Accounts (2010–2022). Scientific Data 12 (1) 10.1038/s41597-025-05137-y.