National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2 degrees C: Comparison of studies

Hoehne N, Taylor C, Elias R, den Elzen M, Riahi K, Chen C, Rogelj J, Grassi G, et al. (2012). National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2 degrees C: Comparison of studies. Climate Policy 12 (3): 356-377. DOI:10.1080/14693062.2011.637818.

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Abstract

This article provides further detail on expected global GHG emission levels in 2020, based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010), assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements are met. Large differences are found in the results of individual groups owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. Regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those that are consistent with a 2 degrees C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent conditional pledges, minimizing the use of "lenient" credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of lenient land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits and surplus emissions units, if these were used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Emissions reduction; GHG emissions; International negotiations; LULUCF; Stabilization scenarios
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Bibliographic Reference: Climate Policy; 12(3):356-377 (Published online 12 March 2012)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2016 10:18
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10009

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