Why Prognostic Systems Analysis Has To Change - Learning from the Past Tells How

Kryazhimskiy AV & Jonas M (2012). Why Prognostic Systems Analysis Has To Change - Learning from the Past Tells How. Poster presentation, IIASA 40th Anniversary Conference, 24-26 October 2012, Laxenburg and Vienna, Austria

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Abstract

Prognostic systems analysis is widely applied to generate "sharp" projections into the future. However, prognostic scenarios and "sharp" futures are a physical impossibility!

The key questions arising are (1) whether it is possible to determine the Heisenberg-like relation of a model; and (2) whether it is even possible to determine the model's characteristic unsharpness regime by learning from the past?

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: Poster presentation, IIASA 40th Anniversary Conference, 24-26 October 2012, Laxenburg and Vienna, Austria
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:47
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2016 12:33
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10105

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