Global Feedstock Scenarios for Bioenergy - Land-Use Change and Trade-Offs

Kraxner F, Nordstrom E-M, Obersteiner M, Havlik P, Gusti M, Kindermann G, Fuss S, & Khabarov N (2012). Global Feedstock Scenarios for Bioenergy - Land-Use Change and Trade-Offs. Paper submitted to IEW 2012, the 31st edition of the International Energy Workshop, 19-21 June 2012, University of Cape Town, South Africa

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Abstract

This paper presents scenarios of global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. In particular, concerns for the preservation of biodiversity and the reduction of deforestation are considered in different combinations of scenarios. The objectives of this study were 3-fold: (a) to achieve a global perspective using an integrated modeling approach; (b) to frame the boundaries for lower scale assessments; and (c) to identify potential trade-offs to be considered in future research. The aggregate results, achieved through the application of an integrated global modeling cluster, are in line with other studies predicting a doubling of global biomass supplies by mid-century. These supplies will to the largest extent be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast growing short rotation plantations and from intensification as well as optimization of land-use. Depending on the underlying scenario, it can be shown that zero net deforestation by 2020 can be reached and uphold while implying only a minor expansion into managed forests. Results further indicate that especially regions of the southern hemisphere i.e. the tropical belt will face controlled forest conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed as well as increased protection of area for ecosystems services such as biodiversity. The study concludes with the recommendation of increased focus on targeted regional policy design and implementation following integrated global assessments.

Item Type: Other
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bioenergy; Integrated global modelling; Scenario analysis; Deforestation; Forestry
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Postdoctoral Scholars (PDS)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper submitted to IEW 2012, the 31st edition of the International Energy Workshop, 19-21 June 2012, University of Cape Town, South Africa
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:47
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2016 16:11
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10132

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