A multi-model analysis of post-2020 mitigation efforts of five major economies. Special Issue on Implementing Climate Policies in the Major Economies: An Assessment of Durban Platform Architectures — Results from the LIMITS Project

van Sluisveld MAE, Gernaat DEHJ, Ashina S, Calvin K, Garg A, Isaac M, Lucas PL, Mouratiadou I, et al. (2013). A multi-model analysis of post-2020 mitigation efforts of five major economies. Special Issue on Implementing Climate Policies in the Major Economies: An Assessment of Durban Platform Architectures — Results from the LIMITS Project. Climate Change Economics 4 (4): p. 1340012. DOI:10.1142/S2010007813400125.

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Abstract

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Regional; Mitigation efforts; Abatement; Technological implication; Climate policy
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Climate Change Economics; 4(4):1340012 (November 2013) (Published online 4 June 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2016 15:25
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10279

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