Emission trends, pledges and their implementation

Rogner H-H (2013). Emission trends, pledges and their implementation. In: The Emissions Gap Report 2013: A UNEP Synthesis Report. Nairobi: UNEP.

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This chapter presents an update, based on the scientific literature, of the following critical topics:

-- current (2010 global) emissions of greenhouse gases;

-- projected emissions (to 2020) of greenhouse gases under a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario;

-- projections (to 2020) of greenhouse gas emissions under four different sets of assumptions regarding implementation of national pledges to reduce emissions;

-- the extent to which parties are positioned to implement their pledges, in light of their current policy portfolios and plausible assumptions regarding macroeconomic trends and offsets.

The estimated emission level in 2020 under a business-as-usual scenario is 1 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) higher compared to last year's emissions gap report. While the emission levels in 2020 for the strict-rules cases are higher by roughly 1 GtCO2e (unconditional) and are comparable to last year's emission level (conditional), the emission levels associated with the two lenient-rules cases are lower by roughly 1 GtCO2e, as compared to last year's estimates. These changes are mainly due to decisions on surpluses made by countries during the Doha climate negotiations and downward revisions to the assumptions on double counting of offsets. They illustrate that increasing stringency through the climate negotiations can help reduce emission levels in 2020 under lenient-rules cases. However, they do not reflect an increase in ambition or action, but represent a move towards stricter accounting rules. To illustrate, in last year's emissions gap report, emission levels associated with the strict-rules cases were 3 GtCO2e lower than those of the lenient-rules cases, whereas this year they are lower by around 1 GtCO2e (unconditional) and 2 GtCO2e (conditional).

While previous reports assumed full pledge implementation, this year we also explore the extent to which 13 parties, accounting for 72 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are already on track to implement their pledges, and where further policy implementation or offsets are likely to be required.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: In:; The Emissions Gap Report 2013: A UNEP Synthesis Report; UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya pp.3-12 (November 2013)
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Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:49
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:48
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10556

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