Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Rose SK, Richels R, Smith SJ, Riahi K, Strefler J, & van Vuuren DP (2014). Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 123 (3): 511-525. DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5.

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Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25% of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5-10% by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution - with the later declining to as much as 50% and 80% below today's levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone - e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45.85% by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Bibliographic Reference: Climatic Change; 123(3-4):511-525 (April 2014) (Published online 27 October 2013)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2016 15:53

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