Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin

Zhang X, Ermolieva T, Balkovič J, Mosnier A, Kraxner F, & Liu J (2015). Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 89-90: 56-64. DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2015.05.007.

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Abstract

Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two modes is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land over map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use pojections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP scenarios the cropland area is expected to increase from 2010 to 2050, while the grassland area is projected to increase sharply from 2010 to 2030 and then gradually come to a standstill after 2030. The results can be used as an input for planning sustainable land and water management in the study area, and the conceptual framework provides a general approach to creating high-resolution land-use datasets.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cross-entropy; downscaling; Heihe River Basin; land use; shared socio-economic pathway scenarios
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C; 89-90:56-64 [2015] (Published online 1 June 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:52
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2016 11:30
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11315

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