Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 degrees C

Rogelj J, Luderer G, Pietzcker RC, Kriegler E, Schaeffer M, Krey V, & Riahi K (2015). Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 degrees C. Nature Climate Change 5: 519-527. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2572.

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Abstract

Many impacts projected for a global warming level of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels may excede the coping capacities of particularly vulnerable countries. Therefore, many countries advocate limiting warming to below 1.5 derees C. Here we analyse integated energy-economy- environment scenarios that keep warming to below 1.5 degrees C by 2100. We find that in such scenarios, energy-system transformations are in many aspects similar to 2 degrees C-consistent scenarios, but show a faster scale-up of mitigation acion in most sectors, leading to observable differences in emission reductions in 2030 and 2050. The move from a 2 degrees C- to a 1.5 degrees C-consistent word will be achieved mainly through additional reductions of CO2. This implies an earlier transition to net zero carbon emissions worldwide, to be achieved between 2045 and 2060. Energy efficiency and stringent early reductions are key to retain a possibility for limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees C by 2100. The window for achieving this goal is small and rapidly closing.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Nature Climate Change; 5:519-527 (June 2015) (Published online 21 May 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2016 13:41
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11447

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