Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: can emissions peak before 2030

den Elzen M, Fekete H, Hoeho N, Admiraal A, Forsell N, Hof AF, Olivier JGJ, Roelfsma M, et al. (2016). Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: can emissions peak before 2030. Energy Policy 89: 224-236. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030.

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Abstract

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given its current policies and selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level changes from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2 by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions by 2030.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: national climate and energy policies; climate agreement; renewable targets
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: Energy Policy; 89:224-236 [February 2016] (Published online 7 December 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:54
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2017 09:36
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11713

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