Problems in futures research: Delphi and causal cross-impact analysis

Helmer O (1977). Problems in futures research: Delphi and causal cross-impact analysis. Futures 9 (1): 17-31. DOI:10.1016/0016-3287(77)90049-0.

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Abstract

The explosive numerical growth of the futures-research community during the last 15 years has been astonishing. Its intellectual growth cannot be said to have advanced at an equal pace. This article looks at the inherent constraints that make reliance on expert judgement an essential part of futures research. Two methods are discussed: Delphi and cross-impact analysis. The latter part of the article examines a new causal cross-impact model that avoids the criticisms that have been levelled at correlational cross-impact analysis.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: General Research (GEN)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 05 Apr 2016 11:22
Last Modified: 11 Apr 2016 06:58
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12438

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