A multi-attribute multi-party model of choice:descriptive and prescriptive considerations

Kunreuther HC (1983). A multi-attribute multi-party model of choice:descriptive and prescriptive considerations. In: Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes. Eds. Humphreys, P., Svenson, O. & Vári, A., pp. 69-89 Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier. ISBN 978-0-444-86522-9 DOI:10.1016/S0166-4115(08)62226-8.

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Abstract

Societal decision making for siting facilities, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, have two primary features which make these problems difficult to structure analytically. First, the decision affects many interested parties each with their own objectives, attributes, data base and constraints. Secondly, there is the absence of a detailed statistical data base on the safety and environmental risks associated with a proposed project.

This paper describes a multi-attribute multi-party model (MAMP) which has been developed at HASA for structuring the process for siting LNG terminals in four different countries. The decision making process in each of these countries can be characterized as a sequence of decisions, subject to change over time, which are influenced by exogenous factors and legislation. The MAMP model separates this process into a series of rounds, each of which is characterized by a unique problem formulation and an interaction phase. The model is illustrated using detailed data on the California siting decision obtained from published and unpublished material as well as personal interviews. The final section of the paper discusses empirical lessons which follow from the MAMP model and proposes areas for future research on prescriptive analysis.

The research report in this paper is supported by the Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologic, F.R.G., contract No. 321/7591/RGB 8001. While support for this work isgratefully acknowledged, the views expressed are the author's and not necessarily shared by the sponsor. This paper is part of a larger project a group of us at IIASA are undertaking with respect to siting decisions of Liquefied Natural Gas facilities. The ideas presented here reflect helpful discussions with my IIASA colleagues-John Lathrop, Joanne Linnerooth and Nino Majone-as well as with David Bell and Louis Miller. Helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper were provided by Patrick Humphreys and Detlof von Winterfeldt.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: System and Decision Sciences - Core (SDS)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 06 Apr 2016 13:43
Last Modified: 06 Apr 2016 13:43
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12485

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