Modeling afforestation and the underlying uncertainties

Gusti M (2007). Modeling afforestation and the underlying uncertainties. In: Accounting for Climate Change. pp. 55-62 Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. ISBN 978-1-4020-5930-8 DOI:10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8_5.

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Abstract

A dynamic model of the carbon budget of an oak forest ecosystem that takes into account forest stand age was developed. A numerical experiment was designed to simulate the afforestation process, and a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine how parameter uncertainties and environmental variability influence the result. It was found that while the total amount of carbon stored in the ecosystem increases from 1.9 kg C/m2 to 4.4 kg C/m2 over the following 20 years, the relative standard deviation increases from 9 to 21%. The contribution of varying climate and carbon dioxide parameters to total uncertainty is substantial; for example, the standard deviation at the 10th modeling year for phytomass doubles and the uncertainties of the soil pool and total accumulated carbon increase by a factor of nearly 1.4, while the uncertainty of the litter pool stays almost at the same level.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: afforestation; mathematical mode;l Monte Carlo simulation; uncertainty estimation
Research Programs: Forestry (FOR)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 12 May 2016 14:09
Last Modified: 19 May 2016 12:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13194

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