Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Ermolieva T, Havlík P, Ermoliev Y, Mosnier A, Obersteiner M, Leclère D, Khabarov N, Valin H, et al. (2016). Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model. Journal of Agricultural Economics 67 (3): 584-601. DOI:10.1111/1477-9552.12173.

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Project: Economics of climate change adaptation in Europe (ECONADAPT, FP7 603906), Assessment of the impact of drivers of change on Europe's food and nutrition security (TRANSMANGO, FP7 613532), Exploring the potential for agricultural and biomass trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (AGRICISTRADE, FP7 612755)

Abstract

Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario-dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better-off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex-ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex-post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Extreme events; food-energy-water-environment security; Global and Regional Interdependent land use systems; robust solutions; stochastic optimisation; strategic and adaptive decisions; systemic risks; yield shocks
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 20 Jun 2016 14:48
Last Modified: 09 Mar 2017 11:01
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13304

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