Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

Abel G, Barakat B, KC S, & Lutz W (2016). Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-16-007

[img]
Preview
Text
WP-16-007.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (820kB) | Preview

Abstract

Here we show to what extent expected world population growth will be lower as a consequence of implementing the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health and education for all girls by 2030, which will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multi-dimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios resulting in population sizes between 8 and 9 billion in 2100. Since these results lie outside the 95 percent uncertainty range given by the 2015 UN probabilistic population projections we complement the study through sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those uncertainty intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. This analysis quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and policies, particularly in female education and reproductive health, can greatly contribute to reducing world population growth.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Additional Information: Partial funding for this work was made possible by an Advanced Grant of the European Research Council “Forecasting Societies’ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change”: grant agreement ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc and the “Wittgenstein Award” of the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Z171-G11. Authors want to acknowledge helpful comments and suggestions made by Adrian Raftery on carrying out the sensitivity analyses of the UN projections presented in this paper.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals, Reproductive Health, Female Education, Mortality, Population Growth
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2016 14:07
Last Modified: 09 Dec 2016 08:53
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13348

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313