Projecting Nepal's Demographic Future- How to deal with spatial and demographic heterogeneity

K.C., S., Speringer, M., Thapa, A., & Khanal, M.N. (2016). Projecting Nepal's Demographic Future- How to deal with spatial and demographic heterogeneity. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-16-021

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Abstract

This Working Paper outlines the efforts of the cooperation between researchers at IIASA’s World Population Program and the Ministry of Health and Population, Nepal to conduct small-area population projections on Village Development Committee and Municipality levels for Nepal from 2011 to 2031.

In order to fulfil this aim it was necessary to compile, harmonize and estimate small-area population data based on the latest census and survey data. Due to the lack of comprehensive fine-grained data on the demographic determinants fertility, mortality, and migration we estimate those with different methodological approaches like the Child-Women-Ratio or mortality corrections. In recent time, internal and international migration has become the most common of the three demographic components; therefore, most efforts went into estimating the rates of migration flows to and from several directions.

The creation of this small-area fertility, mortality and migration data by age and sex enables us to apply the well-known cohort component method in a multi-state framework (each district as a state) and to create reasonable scenarios on the prospective population development for Nepal on regional and local level. This will help national, regional and local actors and policymakers to set appropriate measures to steer and adapt to the future characteristics of the Nepalese society on all administrative levels.

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