Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments

Murphy AH & Winkler RL (1975). Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments. In: Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making. Eds. Wendt, Dirk & Vlek, Charles, Theory and Decision Library (11). pp. 177-198 Netherlands: Springer. ISBN 978-94-010-1834-0 DOI:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10.

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Abstract

Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment is discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3–6 September, 1973
Research Programs: Energy Program (ENP)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 17 Jan 2017 09:49
Last Modified: 17 Jan 2017 09:49
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14262

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