Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

Walsh B, Ciais P, Janssens IA, Penuelas J, Riahi K, Rydzak F, van Vuuren DP, & Obersteiner M (2017). Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks. Nature Communications DOI:10.1038/ncomms14856. (In Press)

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Abstract

In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next ten years in order to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will likely
need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100, and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at global
scale.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2017 07:56
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2017 07:32
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14356

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