Expert-based probabilistic population projections

Lutz W, Sanderson WC, & Scherbov S (1999). Expert-based probabilistic population projections. In: Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Eds. Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W. & Ahlburg, D.A., New York: Population Council.

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Abstract

Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school planning, social security considerations, energy outlook, and the like. For this reason a medium projection is an indispensable component of any set of published projections intended for practical use.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: In: W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, D.A. Ahlburg (eds); Frontiers of Population Forecasting; Population Council, New York, NY, USA pp.139-155 (1999)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:11
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:41
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5792

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