What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe?

Lutz W & Scherbov S (1999). What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe? IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-00-005. Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999)

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Abstract

This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert-based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions used for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those of Eurostat. These high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67% and 90% of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above age 60 is likely to increase by about 60% whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20%. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint))
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:11
Last Modified: 19 Jul 2016 07:11
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5941

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