Future population and education trends: Scenarios to 2030 by socioecological region

Goujon A, Kohler I, & Lutz W (2000). Future population and education trends: Scenarios to 2030 by socioecological region. In: Population, Development, and Environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030. Eds. Lutz, W., Prieto, L. & Sanderson, W., pp.141-172: IIASA Research Report RR-00-014.

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Abstract

This chapter proposes several possible paths of population and educational attainment for the Yucatan peninsula up to 2030. For this purpose, the population of each socioecological region (SER), as defined in Chapter 2, was projected along three main scenarios reflecting the potential future of the region: a stagnation scenario, a rapid development scenario, and a central scenario.

When defining the projection assumptions, special emphasis was placed on three parameters: education, migration, and rural/urban differences. The first focus derives from the premise that education may play an important role in shaping the region's demographic features. Education is seen as a factor of heterogeneity that can influence many variables of population change, such as fertility decline and the momentum of population growth. For example, the evidence of a negative relationship between education and fertility on the Yucatan peninsula is overwhelming.

The focus on migration reflects the population flows that have occurred in the region over the past 25 years. The population has grown rapidly, largely as a result of migratory flows into the tourist-urban region (Cancun) and northern block-fault basin region (see Chapter 3). The peninsula's economy is largely based on tourism, and this sector has the potential to further increase its share in the region's economy (see Chapter 8).

Another challenge lies in the division between the traditional rural Maya culture and the modern urban Western culture, a division that is the source of many demographic contrasts within the peninsula. Most of the rural parts of the peninsula are depressed areas that experience outward migration and higher rates of natural increase, lower life expectancies, and lower levels of educational attainment with higher rates of illiteracy than the urban parts of the peninsula.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: In: W. Lutz, L. Prieto, W. Sanderson (eds); Population, Development, and Environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030; IIASA Research Report RR-00-014, pp.141-172
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:12
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:41
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6045

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