New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting

Lutz W, Saariluoma P, Sanderson WC, & Scherbov S (2000). New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-00-020

[img]
Preview
Text
IR-00-020.pdf

Download (110kB) | Preview

Abstract

All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as ignorant as anybody. In the context of expert-based probabilistic population projections, this issue is receiving even more attention. In this paper we argue that information about the future cannot be true for the reason that it is being presented by an acknowledged authority (institution or person), nor is it acceptable to resolve scientific issues on the ground of voting or concert. As an alternative we propose the concept of argument-based expert opinion. Under this approach any structural and trend assumption needs to be based on explicit argumentation rather than implicit judgement.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:12
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2016 14:07
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6225

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313