China's uncertain demographic present and future

Lutz W, Scherbov S, Cao G-Y, Ren Q, & Zheng X-Y (2007). China's uncertain demographic present and future. In: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. pp. 37-59 Vienna, Austria: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften. DOI:10.1553/populationyearbook2007s37.

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Abstract

This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of Chinas future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of Chinas current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of Chinas population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Forestry (FOR)
Bibliographic Reference: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2007; 5:37-59 (2007) (Published online 11 December 2007)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:39
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2016 07:53
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/8162

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