Scenario analysis for the trends of paper consumption in China: Urbanization effect in the medium term

Cao G-Y, Zheng X, Horabik J, Nilsson S, Xu J, Wang H, & Wang H (2011). Scenario analysis for the trends of paper consumption in China: Urbanization effect in the medium term. Population and Development 17 (2): 1-13.

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of urban growth on future paper consumption based on the medium term demographic-economic scenarios. The method of "regression with autocorrelated errors" is used to examine the implications of alternative development paths of urban growth on paper consumption. The simulation results confirm a hypothesis that the urbanization process in China strongly affects paper consumption. Since more rapid urbanization is possible, it would have correspondingly larger effects. Comparing demographic variables with economic variables, the effect of urban household economic factors is relatively more pronounced. According to the simulation results, we expect that pressure for environmental aggravation will increase in association with the paper consumption growth in the medium term future.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Paper; Consumption; Urbanization
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Forestry (FOR)
Bibliographic Reference: Population & Development; 17(2):1-13
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2016 08:11
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9598

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