Integrated assessment of crop management portfolios in adapting to climate change in the Marchfeld region

Strauss F, Fuss S, Szolgayova J, & Schmid E (2011). Integrated assessment of crop management portfolios in adapting to climate change in the Marchfeld region. In: Jahrbuch der OeGA - Band 19(2). Eds. Eder, M & Poechtrager, S, Vienna: Fakultas Verlag. ISBN 978-3-7089-0662-1

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Abstract

Portfolio optimization is an adequate tool to find optimal crop management options in adapting to climate change. The risk farmers have to face can be caused by different sources. In our study, we focus on the risk arising from unknown weather conditions. Therefore, we developed stochastic climate change scenarios for the Marchfeld region. Two portfolio models have been applied in the time periods 2008-2020, 2021-2030 and 2031-2040: a traditional non-linear mean-variance (E-V) model and a model using the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk metric. Investigated crops are corn, winter wheat, sunflower and spring barley with different crop management alternatives. Minimum tillage appears in all portfolios. We found a decreasing share of winter wheat that gets partially substituted by sunflower over the time periods. When including environmental constraints (soil organic carbon content, nitrate leaching) the reverse effect on the resulting portfolio shares is observed with corn being included. The E-V model reveals more diversification with respect to the crops, whereas the CVaR model shows more diversification with respect to crop management options.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change; Portfolio optimization in agriculture; Risk management
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: In: M Eder, S Poechtrager (eds); Jahrbuch der OeGA - Band 19(2); Fakultas Verlag, Vienna, Austria pp.11-20
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:46
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9687

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