Report on uncertainty methods

Patt A, Hinkel J, & Swart R (2011). Report on uncertainty methods. Deliverable 4.1, FP7 MEDIATION Project (January 2011)

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Abstract

The issue of uncertainty is critical for climate change science and policy. A great deal of research analysis has gone into identifying the scope and character of uncertainty in climate change itself, in how analysts and assessment teams can and should communicate that uncertainty to policy- and decision-makers, and how policy- and decision-makers can then incorporate nowledge about the sources and magnitude of uncertainty in their choices. The primary purpose of this deliverable is to summarize that literature, and to synthesize it in a manner that is useful for the Mediation project, namely in improving the practice of assessing adaptaion needs and options, and in building a useful decision-support platform or system. The report starts with a user-driven focus, summarizing the literatures on both descriptive and normative models of decision-making under uncertainty, in order to identify the most effective and esential information inputs for each of these models. The report then summarizes some of the main guidance documents on communicating uncertanty, prepared for or in use by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United States government, and the Dutch government. Fially, the report synthesizes these previous studies for use in the Mediation project and its users by focusing on three essential characteristics of uncertainty communication: parsimony, personalization, and practicality. It identifies specific strategies for using these three criteria to ensure that assessments for climate adaptation are salient, credible, and legitimate, and thus ultimately construtive inputs into policy- and decision-making.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV)
Risk & Resilience (RISK)
Bibliographic Reference: Deliverable 4.1, FP7 MEDIATION Project (January 2011)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2016 10:16
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9723

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