Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

van Pelt SC, Beersma JJ, Buishand TA, van den Hurk BJJM, & Kabat P (2012). Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16 (12): 4517-4530. DOI:10.5194/hess-16-4517-2012.

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Abstract

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961-2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961-1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Directorate (DIR)
Water (WAT)
Bibliographic Reference: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences; 16(12):4517-4530 (3 December 2012)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2016 10:54
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9886

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