Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050: GAINS model methodology

Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135, Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Purohit, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, & Gomez-Sanabria, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2317-3946 (2016). Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050: GAINS model methodology. IIASA Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

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Abstract

This report presents the GAINS model methodology for the 2016 Reference scenario for emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), mitigation potentials and costs in the EU-28 with projections to 2050. The non-CO2 emission scenarios form part of the work under the EUCLIMIT2 project1. The project aims at producing projections for all emissions of GHGs in the EU-28 consistent with the macroeconomic and population projections presented in EC/DG ECFIN (2015). Four modelling groups were involved in the work: PRIMES (National Technical University of Athens), CAPRI (Bonn University), GLOBIOM (IIASA-ESM program) and GAINS (IIASA-MAG program). This report focuses on describing the methodology of the GAINS model for the estimation of the non-CO2 GHGs, i.e., methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (F-gases) viz. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
The report is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the general GAINS methodology for estimating draft non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions for EU-28. Sections 3, 4 and 5 describe in detail the methodology applied for estimation of emissions by source for CH4, N2O and Fgases, respectively. Finally, Section 6 provides a comparison between emissions reported by member states to the UNFCCC for years 2005 and 2010 and the emissions estimated by the GAINS model for the same years.

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