Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Havlík P, Valin H, Bodirsky BL, Doelman JC, Fellmann T, Kyle P, et al. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change 8 (8): 699-703. DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x.

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Project: Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692), Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe (SIM4NEXUS, H2020 689150)

Abstract

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop­ production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub­ Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 30 Jul 2018 15:06
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2018 15:30
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15389

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