Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Havlík P, Valin H ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Bodirsky BL, Doelman JC, Fellmann T, Kyle P, et al. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change 8 (8): 699-703. DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x.

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Project: Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692), Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe (SIM4NEXUS, H2020 689150)

Abstract

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop­ production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub­ Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 30 Jul 2018 15:06
Last Modified: 01 Jul 2019 09:09
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15389

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