Practice and perspectives in the validation of resource management models

Eker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2264-132X, Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, & Langan, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0742-3658 (2018). Practice and perspectives in the validation of resource management models. Nature Communications 9 (1) e5359. 10.1038/s41467-018-07811-9.

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Abstract

Quantitative modelling is commonly used to assist the policy dimension of sustainability problems. Validation is an important step to make models credible and useful. To investigate existing validation viewpoints and approaches, we analyse a broad academic literature and conduct a survey among practitioners. We find that empirical data plays an important role in the validation practice in all main areas of sustainability science. Qualitative and participatory approaches that can enhance usefulness and public reliability are much less visible. Data-oriented validation is prevalent even when models are used for scenario exploration. Usefulness regarding a given task is more important for model developers than for users. As the experience of modellers and users increases, they tend to better acknowledge the decision makers’ demand for clear communication of assumptions and uncertainties. These findings provide a reflection on current validation practices and are expected to facilitate communication at the modelling and decision-making interface.

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