Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Smith, S.J., Chateau, J., Dorheim, K., Drouet, L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hanaoka, T., Harmsen, M., Hilaire, J., Keramidas, K., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Luderer, G., Moura, M.C.P., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Sano, F., van Vuuren, D., & Wada, K. (2020). Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis. Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3.

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Abstract

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

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