Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing

Kramer, R.J., He, H., Soden, B.J., Oreopoulos, L., Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., & Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 (2021). Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (7) e2020GL091585. 10.1029/2020GL091585.

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Project: Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829)

Abstract

Changes in atmospheric composition, such as increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiative imbalance to the climate system, quantified as the instantaneous radiative forcing. This fundamental metric has not been directly observed globally and previous estimates have come from models. In part, this is because current space‐based instruments cannot distinguish the instantaneous radiative forcing from the climate’s radiative response. We apply radiative kernels to satellite observations to disentangle these components and find all‐sky instantaneous radiative forcing has increased 0.53±0.11 W/m2 from 2003 through 2018, accounting for positive trends in the total planetary radiative imbalance. This increase has been due to a combination of rising concentrations of well‐mixed greenhouse gases and recent reductions in aerosol emissions. These results highlight distinct fingerprints of anthropogenic activity in Earth’s changing energy budget, which we find observations can detect within 4 years.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2021 14:08
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:34
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17141

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