National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets

Cherp, A., Vinichenko, V., Tosun, J., Gordon, J.A., & Jewell, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2846-9081 (2021). National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets. Nature Energy 6 (7) 742-754. 10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471), Mechanisms and Actors of Feasible Energy Transitions (MANIFEST, H2020 950408)

Abstract

Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 20 Jul 2021 07:31
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:35
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17337

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