A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes

Chiang, F., Greve, P., Mazdiyasni, O., Wada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539, & AghaKouchak, A. (2021). A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (15) e2021GL094361. 10.1029/2021GL094361.

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Abstract

Most attribution studies tend to focus on the impact of anthropogenic forcing on individual variables. However, studies have already established that many climate variables are interrelated, and therefore, multidimensional changes can occur in response to climate change. Here, we propose a multivariate method which uses copula theory to account for underlying climate conditions while attributing the impact of anthropogenic forcing on a given climate variable. This method can be applied to any relevant pair of climate variables; here we apply the methodology to study high temperature exceedances given specified precipitation conditions (e.g., hot droughts). With this method, we introduce a new conditional probability ratio indicator, which communicates the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the likelihood of conditional exceedances. Since changes in temperatures under droughts have already accelerated faster than average climate conditions in many regions, quantifying anthropogenic impacts on conditional climate behavior is important to better understand climate change.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 16 Aug 2021 07:49
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:35
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17369

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