Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Vinca, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3051-178X, Lovat, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4331-980X, Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Zakeri, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9647-2878, et al. (2021). Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes. Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8. (In Press)

[img] Text
Kikstra2021_COVID_energydemand.pdf - Accepted Version
Restricted to Repository staff only until 11 April 2022.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial.

Download (909kB)
[img] Text
Kikstra2021_COVID_energydemand_SI.pdf - Supplemental Material
Restricted to Repository staff only until 11 April 2022.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial.

Download (3MB)
Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471), Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19; mitigation scenarios: energy demand; CO2 emissions
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2021 17:12
Last Modified: 17 Oct 2021 09:09
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17488

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313