Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Humpenöder, F., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., et al. (2021). Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)

Abstract

Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
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Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 19 Oct 2021 08:58
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2021 07:46
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17520

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