A Multicriteria Approach to Modelling Pandemic Response under Strong Uncertainty: A Case Study in Jordan

Ekenberg, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-1889, Mihai, A., Fasth, T., Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179, Danielson, M., & Al-Salaymeh, A. (2022). A Multicriteria Approach to Modelling Pandemic Response under Strong Uncertainty: A Case Study in Jordan. Sustainability 14 (1) e81. 10.3390/su14010081.

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Project: EOSCsecretariat.eu (H2020, 831644)

Abstract

In responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence-based policymaking and risk mitigation have been confronted with limited decision-making mechanisms under conditions of increased uncertainty. Such methods are particularly called for in contexts where reliable data to a large extent are missing and where the chosen policy would impact a variety of sectors. In this paper, we present an application of an integrated decision-making framework under ambiguity on how to contain the COVID-19 virus spread from a national policy point of view. The framework was applied in Jordan and considered both local epidemiologic and socioeconomic estimates in a multistakeholder multicriteria context. In particular, the cocreation process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, and preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups has often been missing from policy response to the pandemic, even though the containment measures’ efficiency largely depends on their acceptance by the impacted groups. For this, there exist several methods attempting to elicit criteria weights, values, and probabilities ranging from direct rating and point allocation methods to more elaborated ones. To facilitate the elicitation, some of the approaches utilise elicitation methods whereby prospects are ranked using ordinal importance information, while others use cardinal information. Methods are sometimes assessed in case studies or more formally by utilising systematic simulations. Furthermore, the treatment of corresponding methods for the handling of the alternative’s values has sometimes been neglected. We demonstrate in our paper an approach for cardinal ranking in policy decision making in combination with imprecise or incomplete information concerning probabilities, weights, and consequences or alternative values. The results of our cocreation process are aggregated in the evaluation of alternative mitigation measures for Jordan, showcasing how a multistakeholder multicriteria decision mechanism can be employed in current or future challenges of pandemic situations, to facilitate management and mitigation of similar crises in the future, in any region.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: multistakeholder decision analysis; multicriteria decision analysis; epidemiological modelling; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19 pandemic; Jordan case study
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 04 Jan 2022 09:30
Last Modified: 04 Jan 2022 09:30
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17724

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