Modelling International Trade in Forest Products (Preliminary Ideas)

Nagy A (1983). Modelling International Trade in Forest Products (Preliminary Ideas). IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-83-004


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The author was asked by the forest modelling group to present his ideas on how international trade of forest products should be modelled. It should be stressed that the ideas presented here are very preliminary ones without any detailed knowledge of the specific features of forest products.

It is suggested that the preparation of the international linkage of national forest product models should start with an analysis of the historical pattern of trade. Two methods are presented: the gravitational analysis to understand better the factors influencing trade flows and the trade intensity analysis to study the bilateral pattern of trade and their evolution in time.

In the second part of the paper the linkage of national models through trade flow matrices is discussed and it is suggested that information on trade intensity changes should be used also in the linkage process and estimated inconsistencies of the world market should influence the policy part of the national models.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Research Programs: System and Decision Sciences - Core (SDS)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:53
Last Modified: 14 Mar 2018 10:00

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