Heterogeneity's ruses: Some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics

Vaupel, J.W. & Yashin, A.I. (1985). Heterogeneity's ruses: Some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics. The American Statistician 39 (3) 176-185.

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As a cohort of people, animals, or machines ages, the individuals at highest risk tend to die or exit first. This differential selection can produce patterns of mortality for the population as a whole that are surprisingly different from the patterns for subpopulations or individuals. Naive acceptance of observed population patterns may lead to erroneous policy recommendations if an intervention depends on the response of individuals. Furthermore, because patterns at the individual level may be simpler than composite population patterns, both theoretical and empirical research may be unnecessarily complicated by failure to recognize the effects of heterogeneity.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Survival analysis; Unobserved heterogeneity; Mixed populations; Hazard rates; Mortality; Failure; Mixtures of distributions
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: The American Statistician; 39(3):176-185 (August 1985)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:55
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2016 09:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2582

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